Present Speculation. Speculating about a PRESENT situation or event we use a modal verb + Infinitive
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modal verbs must/may/might/could/can’t can be used100% sure - Mike must be at home. 50% sure - Mike may/ might/could be at home. 100% sure - Mike can’t be at home.
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must - He must live near here because he comes to work on foot. (we don’t know where he lives but we are sure it’s not far away). - You are a computer programmer. It must be well-paid job. (we are certain it’s true)
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may/ might/could - What do you know about him? He might be a reserved person. - They may be late on meeting. - Don’t eat it! It could be poisoned! (we aren’t certain)
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can’t/couldn’t - She can’t be a mother, she’s only 14. - He can’t be in prison, I saw him yesterday in a pub. - They couldn’t be in a library. It’s closed today.(we are certain it’s impossible)
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Past Speculation. Speculating about a PAST situation or event we use a modal verb + have + V/ed,3
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must + have + Ved/3 - Where is my wallet?! Someone must have stolen it. - You’re soaked. It must have been raining outside. (we are certain it happened)
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may/ might/could + have + Ved/3 - The thieves might have escaped by car but we can’t be sure. - He should be hour by now. He may have been delayed by a traffic jam or something. - I can’t find my purse. I could have left it in the supermarket but I just don’t know. (it was possible)
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can’t/couldn’t + have + Ved/3 - I thought I saw John in town this morning but it can’t have been him – he is in Greece this week. - I can’t have left it in the supermarket – I had it on the bus on the way home. - You can’t have read the instructions properly. They are perfectly clear. (we are certain it was impossible)